Mars' Orbit

The orbit of Mars is increasing its elliptical shape by over 500km per year. At its furthest distance, its aphelion is moving closer to Jupiter; whilst at its nearest, Mars' perihelion is moving closer to the Earth's orbit. Here is the data extracted from NASA's Horizon Ephemeris (http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons.cgi).



A deeper analysis of the data above, is in the section Mars+Jupiter+Earth. The Horizon Ephemeris showed no data for Mars beyond 2500 A.D. when last I checked in January 2020. Even though it does show data beyond 2500 A.D. for the other planets. How curious.

The orbit of Mars fluctuates alot. The algorithm OGS15 (orbit-gravity-sim-15.exe) shows a similar attraction over 948 years when compared to the Horizon Ephemeris data. From the perihelion of 1941 to 2889 AD Mars will approach the Earth at -221km per year; over 200 thousand km in total.

And yet, in this Newtonian 3d-n-body algorithm, it seems that amount is decreasing. Because of the large variations in individual orbits those numbers may be misleading. I will be doing more extensive scenarios in the near future, within the range of my mediocre processing power. I will get a fair approximation within a month or two of incessant evolution. That result might become available later, but there may be more pressing matters to detail first.


The Martian orbit is also vital to study carefully, specifically focusing on Perihelion Precession. The highly elliptical shape to its orbit makes Mars the second best candidate, after Mercury, in this regard. In the section on Mercury numerous radical errors made historically were exposed, in measuring, observing and computing Perihelion Precession of Mercury. So this section is specifically looking at the extent to which the Newtonian algorithms are in agreement with observations of the Perihelion Precession of Mars.

.

The average Perihelion Precession for Mars is:

16.3

arc-seconds per year

.

Nowhere could it be found how the Relativists adjust Einstein's formulae to Newtonian mechanics regarding Mars' orbit, like they have with the orbit of Mercury. For Mercury's Perihelion Precession, the Relativists claim that their formulae constitutes an amount of 8% compared to that which they say is caused by Newton's formula.

However the similarity in the elliptical nature of the orbits of Mars and Mercury, suggest that observations of Mars' Perihelion Precession should likewise at least fall somewhat short of the Newtonian calculations; if Relativity is a true and valid physics theory.


The OGS15 algorithm shows fairly radical precession and recession to the aphelion and the perihelion without any easily noticeable pattern, making it fairly difficult to ascertain an average for the Perihelion Precession of Mars. But in the section on Jupiter+Saturn it can be understood that 237 years of Earth fits neatly into 126 orbits of Mars as well as 20 orbits of Jupiter and 8 of Saturn. A duration of half these values is also adequate, although the effect of the Earth would be somewhat distorted due to 118.5 years not being quite synchronous with 63 orbits for Mars. That smaller sample still fits evenly with Jupiter and Saturn. The effect of the orbit of Jupiter can be seen in the graph to follow.


The graph above is sample A below.

 
axis
scenario / quanta
years
arc-secs/Earth-year
error +-
A
Aphelion
[14] 15 secs
1940 - 2059
15.82 as/Ey
0.0052
B
Aphelion
[34] 150 secs
1773 - 2011
15.88 as/Ey
0.026
C
Aphelion
[34] 150 secs
1773 - 2248
15.86 as/Ey
0.013
D
Aphelion
[34] 150 secs
1773 - 2488
15.83 as/Ey
0.0065
E
Perihelion
[54] 1500 secs
1900 - 2020
16.11 as/Ey
0.52
F
Perihelion
[54] 1500 secs
1900 - 2375
16.01 as/Ey
0.13
G
Perihelion
[54] 1500 secs
1900 - 2849
16.10 as/Ey
0.065
H
Perihelion
[4]   1500 secs
1940 - 2414
16.42 as/Ey
0.13
I
Perihelion
[4]   1500 secs
1940 - 2888
16.30 as/Ey
0.065
J
Perihelion
[14] 15 secs
1940 ->
?
-
K
Perihelion
[24] 1500 secs
1773 - 1894
16.46 as/Ey
0.52
L
Perihelion
[24] 1500 secs
1773 - 2013
16.32 as/Ey
0.26
M
Perihelion
[34] 150 secs
1773 ->
?
-
N
Perihelion
[64] 15 secs
1900 ->
?
-
O
Perihelion
[82] 15000 secs
1900 -
200 000 AD
?
-

In the Introduction the data from utexus.edu claimed an observation of 16.28 as/Ey, although the exact dates were not offered by them. This corroborates fairly closely with the data in the graph above (option L), whereas the utexus.edu Newtonian prediction offered 17.60 as/Ey.

The detail that stands out is that the aphelion and perihelion are preceding at different amounts. This shows the orbit is becoming increasingly bean-shaped with a major-axis that is less and less a proper straight line. In the section on
Neptune something similar was noted. Although not identical, there was a 'correction' for Neptune whereby a sudden massive recession to its major-axis balanced a series of precessions.

When the bean-shape gets too excessive will Mars' orbit reverse its increasing eccentricity and start to behave itself, becoming more circular thereafter? That is just a guess. Executing these scenarios beyond 1000 years is the ongoing scenario currently running as of April 2020 (Scenario [82], option O). Because the quantum size is large this is a bit inaccurate for measuring Perihelion Precession with a recession 2% less than the other scenarios.

With Mars' Eccentricity somewhat similar to Mercury, we could expect the Einstein prediction of the observation to be significantly higher than the Newtonian calculation. But instead we find that the observation is the same as the OGS15 calculation. The utexas.edu prediction (introduction) is clearly contrary to Relativity. Relativity should have the observation higher than the Newtonian prediction. This is no surprise because all of Einstein's formulae regarding planetary movements have already been proved contrary to themselves or empirical observations in previous chapters (Proof against Relativity).

With great satisfaction the OGS15 gives results that corroborate the observation with better accuracy than all 2D models. The 2D models always give an amount of Perihelion Precession that is too high, due to neglecting the Z-axis. (See the section on Mercury for another such example in extensive detail.)

Some of the options like 'J' have not yet generated results, but the algorithm as it stands is ready to deliver them. If you wish to help, and if you have processing power with nothing else useful to do, simply download the algorithm here: Download

After running it for a time, contact me with the results, here:
cosmology.africamotion.net
You may wish to first read the instructions here: Orrery

It would be fantastic if someone with more processing power than my little laptop could allow any one of the scenarios listed to evolve for another 200 thousand years to see just what Mars is going to be doing. I suspect Horizon Ephemeris have omitted details for Mars beyond 500 years into the future due to their own statistical methods being uncertain. Interestingly, they only end results for planet Mars, at this point, 2500 AD; whereas all the other planets go way beyond that time-frame. This suggests that Horizon Ephemeris is not a genuine evolutionary algorithm according to the laws of physics. Their method is purely statistical. If it was evolutionary, then calculating one planet would entail calculating them all to the same extent. More on this later in the section on Uranus.

The 2D results have also not been finalized, although the algorithm OGS13, can deliver those numbers. In a blind prediction, it should be seen that the 2D amount will be significantly higher for Perihelion Precession than the 3D amount. Though there could easily be other factors at play; most specifically the orbit of Mars is not as angled away from the ecliptic as it is with Mercury.

It is a distinct inductive possibility that as Mars' orbit widens and approaches the orbit of Earth, then the Earth will tug forward on Mars. Because the Earth has a higher velocity than Mars, Mars will speed up. Because of this increase in velocity, Mars could then retreat back to an orbit further from the Earth and the Sun. This could then 'correct' and straighten the major-axis. There are numerous other possibilities.

The approach of Mars could also distort the Earth's orbit, which then slows, and as a consequence gets closer to Venus, which could lead to a similar billiard ball effect on Venus's orbit. With the Earth then approaching Venus, the Earth could speed up, pushing Earth back to an orbit similar to its original position. In this way, the planets might regulate one another quite neatly. I discuss these and other potential eventualities in the section: Newtonian-Planck Gravity

An opportunity for a task presents itself:

What does Horizon Ephemeris predict Mars' Perihelion Precession to be? In the section on Mercury I offered a blueprint example of how to go about this in great detail. In the section Sorting Horizons there is a little app that makes sorting their data much easier.

The algorithm OGS15 (orbit-gravity-sim-15.exe) can actually give a more precise analysis than offered by anyone so far. Thus the task would then be to compare Scenario [64] to the Horizon Ephemeris data. Ideally the years from 1900-2020 are shown in the sample 'E' in the list above to be 16.11 as/Ey. This has a fairly large error-margin of 0.5 as/Ey because it is the result of Scenario [54] iterating at 1500 seconds per time-quanta, whereas you will get a result 100x more accurate with Scenario [64] (option N) that calculates at just 15 seconds per quantum jump. Alternatively Scenario [34] (option M) could be a more prudent calculation because it uses 150 seconds per quanta.

Scenario [64] is just way too slow for my little PC. But that did not stop me from writing the application in anticipation of better computers offering me results to which I am objectively blind. That is how open methodology is supposed to work anyways.

My intuition tells me that the results as they stand, are however, good enough. Although we can anticipate that the Relativists may yet still conjure up some values for how the Einstein formulae are supposed to explain the Perihelion Precession of Mars. When they do squeeze some numbers to fit into their 'science of the gaps', then such accuracy as Scenario [64] may be useful to once more show their pseudo-methodology to be the smoke and mirrors that it always was.

But it has been categorically proved that the Relativists miscalculated the Newtonian value of Mercury's orbit by simply ignoring the Z-axis in the section: Mercury. They attribute 8% of Mercury's Perihelion Precession to Einstein, but neglect a 13% effect that results from placing the Newtonian formula into 3 dimensions. The Relativists only use a crude 2D ring-planet statistical model; not an evolutionary 3D algorithm like OGS15. So ignoring the Z-axis is not even their worst miscalculation.

Perhaps the Relativists can finally have the maturity to admit that they have been guilty of sophistry, egotism and nepotism all along? After all, the pun on the word 'Relative' is a fairly subtle admission, whether subconscious, or not. We can only hope and pray that they learn some grace and humility, if nothing else.


 

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